6-6 yesterday and wouldn’t you know it, the day I post about going with your gut, my gut lets me down. I went against my NBA system on two plays and I lost both. One of which was the Dallas at Boston game and if you saw the last few seconds you can share my pain. I also pushed on the Bucks play because Bledsoe missed a late free throw. But I got lucky with the Timber-wolves as they won by 6 and I got the line at 5.5.
This is why making money betting sports is really really tough. The margins are thin, very thin and that is why you must have discipline, manage your bankroll properly, and shop for the best line.
Onto tonight’s card…
I’ll start it off with a nice 10 point teaser to book end week 14 in the NFL. I don’t play a lot of teasers because as the name goes…it’s a tease. Kinda like the girl you knew with a terrific ass and always DTF but dumber then a bag of hammers. But every once in a while it’s fun…amiright?
We know the Saints struggle on the road historically however this year has been better going 3-2 ATS so far. The reason for this is two-fold. One, their defense is much better with a healthy Lattimore which looks to be the odds on favorite for defensive ROY monitor is status but I feel he’ll be out there for this divisional game. Secondly, they have a running game with two very different backs that keeps opposing defenses guessing. These two things travel very well and with the Falcons in a “must win” game I like the Saints getting (+12.5).
Both teams are going to score, that we know, and since this is a prime time game this total opened at 55 and has dropped to 51.5. This is super fishy since usually the over gets hammed by the public and it rises. The fact that this actually went down tells me the line makers got spooked and over adjusted. Getting it at 41.5 is icing on the cake.
I don’t think I need to spend anytime on why I think the Pats (-1) will win on Monday night. In Bill we trust.
In college basketball Valpo (+16) and Iowa St (-6.5) are games I just feel like will cover. I have no numbers to back this up. This is straight feel…so tread lightly. I think 16 is a lot to give a good Valpo team playing a vulnerable Purdue team. When it comes Iowa I said it before and I’ll say it again they won’t win anything until they get rid of their coach. He should not be a leader of young men. If you don’t believe me search for Iowa basketball coach meltdowns and watch for yourself.
On to the NBA:
I’m not a Laker fan and I never was. I never liked Kobe and it killed me that Shaq was on the Lakers since he is one of my favorites. I also think BBB is a Big Big Bust and the Lakers have a long way to go until they can win on a consistent basis. The 76ers on the other hand have done the right thing and built a team that is dynamic, and hungry to win. Philadelphia (-8) leads the Lakers in most of the stats I track and the market hasn’t quite caught up to them yet as they are just under 70% ATS. Love Philly in this spot.
I love teams that play hard especially when they are dogs and the Nets (+6.5) are no exception. This game is being played in Mexico City and the Thunder will be without Paul George. We know Oklahoma City is still trying to figure out how to win with their big 3 and now they are without one of them. Russ probably gets a triple-double but I don’t see them covering.
The Houston Rockets (-6) is a different team with CP3 in the lineup. I’m not seeing the 4th quarter melts or the times where they let teams back into games. CP3 brings the type of maturity that Harden needs. I love this team out of the West and 6 points is not enough against Utah.